Simulation

Chernobyl Tree Frogs 🐸︎

How does a nuclear disaster change a frog population over time? Run the simulation and watch how melanin affects survival before and after the Chernobyl event.

📋 Before You Begin
Read this first, then simulate

This page is a three-step scientific investigation. Complete each step in order.

Common Misconception

Individual frogs do not darken because they need to. Frogs are born with their traits. It is the population that changes over time — because some traits help survival more than others.

Step 1
📖 Read the questions below

Read the four questions and answers before touching the controls. They explain what the simulation is modeling.

Step 2
🐸 Run the simulation

Press Run and watch what happens. The population stays stable at first, then a major environmental event changes survival conditions.

Step 3
📊 Graph your data & reflect

Switch to Graph Mode to plot your results, then answer the reflection questions and submit.

What is this simulation showing?

You are watching natural selection happen over time. The frog population begins with different melanin levels — this is called variation. When radiation is present, frogs with traits that better protect their cells have a greater chance of surviving and reproducing. As generations pass, those heritable traits can become more common in the population. This is adaptation through natural selection.

Why are there different frog colors to begin with?

Variation exists naturally in every population — no two individuals are exactly identical. Some frogs start lighter and some start darker because of inherited differences in melanin. Natural selection does not create that variation from nothing. It acts on the variation that is already there. Before the Chernobyl event, neither color has a strong advantage. Once radiation enters the environment, selection pressure begins to act on that existing variation.

What makes this different from the beetle simulation?

In the beetle simulation, selection pressure came from predators spotting beetles by sight. Here, the pressure is radiation — an invisible environmental change. Survival depends on protection from cellular damage, not camouflage. This models a key idea: selection pressure doesn't have to be visible to be powerful. The Chernobyl disaster changed the environment suddenly, just as the Industrial Revolution changed the trees that peppered moths already lived on.

Why do some light frogs still survive?

Because natural selection is probabilistic, not guaranteed. A lighter frog can still survive by chance. A darker frog can still die. What changes over generations is the probability of survival — not a guarantee. This is why lighter frogs never completely disappear from the population; they just become rarer as the better-adapted trait becomes more common. Chance is always part of the process.

✏️ Plot Your Data

Select a frog type on the right, then click on each even-numbered generation (G0, G2, G4…) to plot that type's percentage. One point per type per generation.

Progress 0 / 33
📋 Your Data
Gen% Light% Medium% Dark
Run simulation first…
Plotting color
Actions
Your light points
Your medium points
Your dark points
Actual light %
Actual medium %
Actual dark %
Graph Accuracy

Plot one point per frog type at G0, G2, G4… Click a filled slot to replace it.

🌿 Contaminated Wetland
🎮 Controls
Model Note
Radiation affects many traits. This model focuses on melanin as one example of how a population can change over time.
📊 Population
0
Generation
Light frogs
Medium frogs
Dark frogs
40% light 35% medium 25% dark
20
Light
18
Medium
12
Dark
50
Total
📊 Populations

🔬 Learning Science Focus 🔬 Simulation & Modelling 🔍 Pattern Recognition ☢️ Invisible Selection Pressure 📈 Productive Struggle
📋 MA STE Standards · Grade 6 6.MS-LS4-4 6.MS-LS4-2 SP2: Modelling
6.MS-LS4-4 Construct an explanation based on evidence that describes how genetic variations of traits in a population increase some individuals' probability of surviving and reproducing in a specific environment.
6.MS-LS4-2 Apply concepts of statistics and probability to support explanations that organisms with an advantageous heritable trait tend to increase in proportion to organisms lacking this trait.
SP2 Develop and use models: students use this simulation as a population model, adjusting pre/post-event conditions and interpreting graphical outputs to explain how radiation pressure drives evolutionary change.